簽到天數: 3280 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-2-28 07:45
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發布TCFA1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 177.7E TO 19.0S 178.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 178.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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