甜心

alec101200 大大北半球現在已經是春天了喔而南半球也已經開始要入秋天嚕，因為某些地理還有天然條件如蜜露大大所言南半球颱風的活躍度的確比較不及北半球但還是有很多外型美觀又強的的氣旋風暴(颱風/颶風)出現過。

甜心

對嚕來說說這隻低氣壓吧現在位置好像太偏南了不久後會變性為溫帶氣旋吧??

t02436

好吧昨天的事一直忘記發= =

FMS昨天下午在所屬大低壓帶中編號14F及15F
先把14F升TD
結果昨晚撤除14F並升15F為TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 179.2E
AT 270600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  TD15F SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TD15F, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC NADI.

昨天升評Medium後樣子就維持到現在
就是沒有發TCFA
18S還不算高緯
稍晚應該就會跨線

t02436

發布TCFA

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S 177.7E TO 19.0S 178.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 178.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

這報老J升格 TD 編號 16P這隻
最近幾天一直在斐濟附近繞來繞去的...

t02436

補個路徑圖

上望60kts
很剛好的繞了斐濟一圈沒有登陸= =

t02436

FMS命名Kofi
上望澳式C2

TROPICAL CYCLONE KOFI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4
SOUTH 177.5 WEST AT 010000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.4S 177.5W at 010000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 020000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.1S 176.5W AT 011200 UTC
              AND NEAR 22.3S 175.5W AT 020000 UTC.