t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9S 52.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH AN
EASILY DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH
A DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE ALONG A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS, HOWEVER, SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
IN VIEW OF THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.