KINGRIC

補一下JTWC的路徑圖
不過強度不是很看好

t02436

JTWC 06Z升格20P
環流廣闊...

krichard2011

00Z FMS 升格澳式Cat.1
命名為 Mike 上看澳式C2

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7
SOUTH 160.7 WEST AT 190000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 160.7W AT 190000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 18KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 200000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.0W AT 191200 UTC
              AND NEAR 24.2S 160.2W AT 200000 UTC.

krichard2011

最新一張底層掃瞄看得出來
底層其實已經整合得挺完整的
稍早 JTWC 發出TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
162.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 182028Z ASCAT PASS. THIS
ASCAT PASS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
THE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF THIS
TRANSITION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

15Z加報升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
163.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 162.7W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO OVERALL
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. A 181209Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEALS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO RELAX TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

KINGRIC

這隻開始整合起來了
雲系的結構已跟之前不太一樣
整體看起來 螺旋性已經比之前好很多
大致看起來是有機會發展的

甜心

93p今天的情況嘛...嗯向西邊移動了一點點觀察雲圖後不知道該怎麼形容，總知它現在主體對流好像有點小暴發又好像發展不太起來。

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 163.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND UNORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN
180437Z 37GHZ SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CHAOTIC
STRUCTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS DUE TO THE
ELONGATED AND CONVERGENT NATURE OF THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

---------
FMS早上在該ITCZ又另編21F
目前93P介於19F與21F之間
過個一兩天應該就會比較明朗了~

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD21F [1003HPA] WAS
ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 160.3W AT
172200UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN PAST
12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS GOOD ON EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE
SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND
MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.