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20P.Mike 緯度漸高 結構瓦解已轉化

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[LV.2]偶爾看看I

KINGRIC|2014-3-18 19:03 | 顯示全部樓層
這隻開始整合起來了
雲系的結構已跟之前不太一樣
整體看起來 螺旋性已經比之前好很多
大致看起來是有機會發展的


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-3-19 00:20 | 顯示全部樓層
15Z加報升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
163.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 162.7W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO OVERALL
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. A 181209Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEALS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO RELAX TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.



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評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +5 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 5 @@

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-3-19 11:59 | 顯示全部樓層
最新一張底層掃瞄看得出來
底層其實已經整合得挺完整的
稍早 JTWC 發出TCFA


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
162.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 182028Z ASCAT PASS. THIS
ASCAT PASS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
THE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF THIS
TRANSITION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-3-19 12:25 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-3-19 12:37 編輯

00Z FMS 升格澳式Cat.1
命名為 Mike 上看澳式C2

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7
SOUTH 160.7 WEST AT 190000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 160.7W AT 190000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 18KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 200000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.0W AT 191200 UTC
              AND NEAR 24.2S 160.2W AT 200000 UTC.

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點評

看這緯度,巔峰會在轉化期間。  發表於 2014-3-19 13:25
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-3-19 15:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z升格20P
環流廣闊...



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簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

KINGRIC|2014-3-19 15:51 | 顯示全部樓層
補一下JTWC的路徑圖
不過強度不是很看好


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-3-19 17:06 | 顯示全部樓層
很少在 JTWC 報文看到「轉為副熱帶」。

  1. WTPS31 PGTW 190900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
  4. REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
  5. AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
  6. RMKS/
  7. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
  8.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
  9.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  10.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  11.     ---
  12.    WARNING POSITION:
  13.    190600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
  14.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
  15.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
  16.      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  17.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  18.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  19.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  20.    REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W
  21.     ---
  22.    FORECASTS:
  23.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
  24.    191800Z --- 23.5S 159.1W
  25.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
  26.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  27.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  28.                             040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  29.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  30.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  31.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
  32.     ---
  33.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
  34.    200600Z --- 25.4S 160.0W
  35.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
  36.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  37.    BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
  38.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  39.                             045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  40.                             045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  41.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  42.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
  43.     ---
  44.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
  45.    201800Z --- 27.1S 161.0W
  46.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
  47.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  48.    SUBTROPICAL
  49.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  50.                             045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  51.                             045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  52.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  53.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
  54.     ---
  55.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  56.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
  57.    210600Z --- 29.5S 162.0W
  58.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  59.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  60.    EXTRATROPICAL
  61.     ---
  62. REMARKS:
  63. 190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
  64. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
  65. SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
  66. SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
  67. SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
  68. CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
  69. DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
  70. GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
  71. FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
  72. AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
  73. HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
  74. SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
  75. RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
  76. THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
  77. WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
  78. SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
  79. FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
  80. PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
  81. FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
  82. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
  83. PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
  84. UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
  85. BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
  86. TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
  87. MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
  88. TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
  89. AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
  90. CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
  91. SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
  92. DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
  93. QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
  94. FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
  95. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
  96. WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
  97. CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
  98. 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
  99. NNNN
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2014-3-19 18:38 | 顯示全部樓層
20p.Mike 今天從13p低氣壓強度爆發增強為熱帶風暴噜說實在的滿驚奇的這算是奇蹟它原先都快被風切夾扁成一條線了說,來說說情況人家下面有放大圖今天下午幾度觀察發現它週遭海域環境好轉且它是乎在建立眼牆了目前中心窩附近螺旋相當的深強度仍在繼續增強中。



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你會用標點嗎?  發表於 2014-3-20 11:50
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