21S.Hellen 海峽有紀錄以來最強氣旋

martin191919 · 2014-3-27 22:27

krichard2011 發表於 2014-3-27 22:05
那隻可能也很厲害的樣子
中心才剛出海沒多久
底層就已經建立的差不多

但EC無論在強度和結構仍繼續看衰....

krichard2011 · 2014-3-27 22:05

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-3-27 22:07 編輯

那隻可能也很厲害的樣子
中心才剛出海沒多久
底層就已經建立的差不多
甚至連眼牆都旋出來了
強度很有機會爆發
這個系統GFS似乎已經關注很久了

t02436 · 2014-3-27 21:35

MFR編號14R

WTIO22 FMEE 271231 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/03/2014 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 27/03/2014 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: DISTURBANCE 14 1006 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 40.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEA WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2014/03/28 AT 00 UTC:
12.4 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2014/03/28 AT 12 UTC:
12.6 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY EMISSION OF REGULAR
WARNING

甜心 · 2014-3-27 16:06

95s低氣壓今天出海後看起來發展的還不錯螺旋已現有進一步增強為熱低的局勢，目前從雲圖看起來它的體型目前算是比較嬌小的系統但也因此未來對於整合將會比較省時間。

martin191919 · 2014-3-27 07:13

MFR

AWIO20 FMEE 261134
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2014/03/26 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The East-Northeasterly monsoon inflow is weak all over the width of the basin.
The associated convective activity is present from the African coastlines to 90E between 6S and
20S, more active along the African coasts, and over the northern part of the Mozambican channel
North of 16S, and also East of 65E, between the monsoon flow and the western flow, North of the
area of low pressure, between 65E and 80E, and from 10S to 40S.
The monsoon flow will weaken progressively up to the end of this week, and remain located over
the western part of the basin. The subtropical anticyclone will shift south of 35S on the southern
edge of the wide area of low pressure persistent over the central part of the basin for the next days.
A new subtropical anticyclone arriving south of Madagascar, and tracking very lowly eastwards is
expected to generate a persistent South South-east flow in the canal on Friday and Saturday,
converging with the monsoon flow in the north.
Upper levels conditions over the area are favourable to cyclogenesis with a good upper divergence
under the axis of the upper level ridge for the next days.
The disturbed weather over an area extending from the african coasts to The Comoros, is forecasted
to continue, and temporarily generates a sustained rainy-thundery activity over Mayotte and The
Comoros, and the northern coast of Mozambique for the next days.
The available NWP models (deterministic and ensemble prediction system) still suggest the
deepening of a weak circulation up to Friday in this area.
The likehood that a Tropical Depression develops over the basin is low Thursday. it becomes
moderate from Friday to Monday.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%

t02436 · 2014-3-27 06:42

編號一天就TCFA...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 40.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 39.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS OVER LAND
STRADDLING THE TANZANIA-MOZAMBIQUE BORDER AND APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE COAST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EASTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE CYCLONES IMMINENT EXIT
INTO WARM WATER AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.