t02436

稍早的底層
底層眼已經構建完成
現在就等待高層眼清空






NHC分析CI4.0
給出65KT升格颶風
Satellite intensity estimates were 3.5 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC,
respectively, with the latest ADT CI values at 4.0.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 14.7N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 15.8N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 16.2N 134.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 16.4N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 16.5N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

krichard2011

NHC升格TS 命名Iselle
上看 Cat.1

INIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 122.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

t02436

NHC稍早提升評級至High
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

JTWC也發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 121.0W HAS
SHOWN IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS A 1044Z AMSU-
B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD WITH
THERE IS A DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS). MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MAXIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

編號一個多小時竟然沒人發= ='?
NHC評Medium
五日上看80%

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized.  However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent