t02436

已經逐漸移入夏威夷雷達範圍中
雖說結構已經趨於潰散
但仍可能以TS上限-C1下限直衝大島而去




稍晚即將登陸

krichard2011

差不多快登陸了目前最大陣風出現在Kealakomo
51KT 還在上升中

t02436

中心直穿大島
現在應該出海了


整體潰散非常快速
不在看好後續強度
預計72小時候消散

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 19.3N 156.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
12H  09/0000Z 19.7N 158.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  09/1200Z 20.3N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  10/0000Z 20.8N 162.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  10/1200Z 21.4N 165.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

以下轉自icyclone 臉書
認為是有紀錄以來襲擊大島的最強颶風

ISELLE didn't make it to Hawai'i's Big Island as a hurricane-- but with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), it was still the strongest known tropical cyclone to hit that island. This radar shot, from just before landfall, shows ISELLE making a final push before crossing the coast. Hilo escaped the worst, with the brunt of the storm passing S of the city.

Meow

身在夏威夷就要用夏威夷語來感謝。:lol

WTPA43 PHFO 090234
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092014
500 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
ISELLE. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONICALLY
ROTATING SHOWERY CLOUDS...AND SEVERAL SMALLER CYCLONICALLY ROTATING
EDDIES THAT ARE GENERATED BY THE STRONG FLOW CHANNELLED BETWEEN THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE KAUAI RADAR INDICATES 40 KT VELOCITIES NEAR
THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER AT ABOUT 8000 FEET...AND THE LAST
RECONNAISSANCE PASS INDICATED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS REMAIN AT 850 MB IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED
TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
IF NOT SOONER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN.

BIG MAHALOS TO THE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTERS
AND THE NOAA G-IV PERSONNEL FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND LONG HOURS
PROVIDING US EXTREMELY VALUABLE DATA IN OUR ANALYSES FOR ISELLE.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.0N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 20.4N 161.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 20.7N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 20.9N 165.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  11/0000Z 21.2N 168.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD