Meow

從 15Z 以後CMG 對流就幾乎消失殆盡，再加上 18Z 以後東側變窄、風眼變冷，我仍傾向 NHC 給的 140 節風速巔峰。

以東北太平洋環境特性，置換後應該還能維持強度或緩慢減弱一段時間，看看有無機會成為環狀颶風，只是 Marie 的大環流讓這機會降低。

t02436

00Z速報降到C4

EP, 13, 2014082500,   , BEST,   0, 163N, 1124W, 135,  922, HU,  34, NEQ,  270,  240,  150,  150, 1009,  380,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082500,   , BEST,   0, 163N, 1124W, 135,  922, HU,  50, NEQ,  100,   90,   70,   90, 1009,  380,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082500,   , BEST,   0, 163N, 1124W, 135,  922, HU,  64, NEQ,   50,   40,   30,   40, 1009,  380,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,

從最新的底層來看
應該馬上要進行眼壁置換了
對流明顯衰弱不少






補一張Aqua

krichard2011

今年東太第一隻C5正式誕生@@
也是四年來第一隻
EP, 13, 2014082418,   , BEST,   0, 158N, 1119W, 140,  918, HU,  50, NEQ,  100,   90,   70,   90, 1009,  360,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,

krichard2011

SSD給出T值7.0
稍後C5的機會應該不低@@
TXPZ29 KNES 241812
TCSENP

A.  13E (MARIE)

B.  24/1800Z

C.  15.8N

D.  111.9W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...DT=7.0 BASED ON WH RING WITH WMG EYE.  PT=7.0.  MET=7.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL

CX723-A330

蜜露

T Raw 7.3 ,T Adj 7.1  ,FT CI 6.7

SSD的8.1.4甚至分析到7.0

krichard2011

風眼相當渾圓清晰見底 雲頂的紋路也相當漂亮
藉由雲頂的紋路大致可以看得出
這個系統的高層流出很不錯
未來應該還有一點發展空間...
還滿期待之後MODIS或VIIRS影像

krichard2011

NHC 最新一報 強度一樣 130 KT
不過上望 C5 如成真 這個將是東太4年來第一個 C5 @@
東太上一個 Cat.5 以經要追溯到四年前的 Celia颶風

Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours,
with very cold convective tops surrounding the center.  As a
result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both
were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of
T6.5/127 kt.  Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU
pass was 126 kt.  Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is
raised to 130 kt.

The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has
actually been moving more westward during the past few hours.  The
hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which
extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature
should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4
days.  Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening
ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge
leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to
turn north-northwestward by day 5.  There is very little spread
among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially
lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model
consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2.

Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like
Marie get this strong.  Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or
an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment
around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening
during the next 12-24 hours.  Thereafter, slow weakening is likely
until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over
waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass.  The new NHC
intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to
account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no
significant changes were required.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells will cause dangerous
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL