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13E.Marie 東太時隔四年C5再現

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-8-22 22:45 | 顯示全部樓層
底層已經在建立中了
對流也爆發中 從衛星雲圖來看已經很有樣子
NHC提到他將通過環境相當優越的區域
本人對他的強度抱有很大的期待... 不排除能挑戰Cat.4以上
目前NHC上看Cat.3上限...


Marie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep
convection and banding features in all quadrants.  Additionally,
water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming
increasingly well defined.  The current intensity estimate is set at
45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from
UW/CIMSS.  Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an
environment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several
days, continued strengthening seems inevitable
.  Marie should become
a hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category
3 status during the forecast period.  This is suggested even by the
global models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen
below 950 mb in a few days.  The official wind speed forecast, which
could be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective
intensity guidance.

The storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt.  The
steering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at
this time.  Over the next several days, Marie should move along the
southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will
be building westward from northern Mexico.  The dynamical track
forecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is
very close to the model consensus.  This is essentially an update of
the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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東太是NHC管的. JTWC不會去管..另外這個可能會影響地區. 不排除會派飛機實測  發表於 2014-8-23 00:29
如果真的爆發 到時候JTWC應該又會給135kts 硬黑掉C5  發表於 2014-8-22 23:53
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-8-23 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 21Z正報上調巔峰至115KT
強度預報與SHIPS數值模式接近
Marie continues to intensify.  Satellite images show a well-
organized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and
numerous rain bands surrounding the center.  The current intensity
estimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and
data from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses.  The tropical cyclone
will be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical
shear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the
intensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie.  In
particular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4
status in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which
shows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next
24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS
guidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS
models thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
72H  25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W  115 KT 135 MPH

96H  26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

貼個SHIP數值模式~強度最高的綠線~


00Z速報給出TS上限
或許03Z就有機會達到C1
EP, 13, 2014082300,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1042W,  60,  995, TS,  50, NEQ,   40,   30,    0,   30, 1009,  200,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MARIE, D,

底層還在建立
看起來蠻扎實的....
近幾小時核心區持續爆對流





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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2014-8-23 11:24 | 顯示全部樓層


繼續上望C4  115kts

這還只是保守的上望而已.




瑪莉未來可能繼金娜薇之後最強的.

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NHC上望125kts. 保守的評價.  發表於 2014-8-23 16:08
有會衝到145kts的感覺  發表於 2014-8-23 13:40
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-8-23 21:36 | 顯示全部樓層
Marie 的高層眼似乎快要開了...
雖然最近一張似乎又蓋起來
不過應該已經是一個趨勢

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Meow|2014-8-23 23:06 | 顯示全部樓層
仍持續預期快速增強,但預測巔峰稍微下調。NHC 根據的是比較樂觀的模式預測,但沒有很確定,因為不同模式對未來垂直風切的趨勢有歧見。







000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231446
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since
yesterday at this time.  Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting
in association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an
appearance.  Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend
of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt.
Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly
uncertain.  The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are
likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days.
The GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about
10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over
next three days.  However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests
substantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the
symmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid
intensification.  The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS
statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of
the other guidance.  By days four and five, Marie should be passing
over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere.  The forecast
intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus.
This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided
in the previous advisory from 36 hours onward.  Unfortunately, no
new size information has been available and the wind radii analysis
and prediction remain about the same.

The initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave
passes recently and no eye being seen yet.  However, the available
fixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier
analyzed.  The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly
slower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a
deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the
main steering factor for the entire forecast time.  The track
guidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and
suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track.  The
official track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous
advisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise
quite close in longitude.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.6N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-8-24 00:16 | 顯示全部樓層
最新的底層掃出來了
不過看似還要在稍微整合一下
雖然CDO已大致建立完成 不過眼牆仍尚未成型
可能要等到中心經過一段時間慢慢整合起來後 才可望正式開眼


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發展比預期慢了點..滿擔心的.. 這兩天內瑪莉要把握了. 在過去海溫就不高了... 東太是比不上西太暖池的.  發表於 2014-8-24 11:18
凌晨看到他底層還在建立. 估計開眼還要等.. 今天中午看到最新底層時. 底層眼已經有看到..但是眼牆很薄.  發表於 2014-8-24 11:15
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2014-8-24 11:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2014-8-24 11:21 編輯







美國時間星期一時, 瑪莉颶風中心會正好在克拉里翁島附近經過..

該島好像是無人島的樣子...

瑪莉颶風可能不會出動飛機來觀察..



東太的IR和BD常常沒掃全部. 用水汽來看是這樣



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0300Z 高層眼最近有要開啟症狀  發表於 2014-8-24 12:03
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-8-24 13:52 | 顯示全部樓層
高層風眼大概是已經開始清空了
晚點風眼應該就會正式開啟了
結構相當不錯 環流又渾圓
CIMSS的ADT 也分析出風眼
RawT 一度達到驚人的7.3
2014AUG24 041500  4.6  977.5  79.6  4.6 4.6 7.3  MW ON     OFF  OFF  -28.58 -77.86  EYE/P  -99 IR  28.3   15.73  109.21  SPRL   GOES13 43.1

等風眼開啟後 T值應該就會開始衝了...

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