1418 巴逢轉化後加速東北移動

blackcat · 2014-9-28 16:45

本帖最後由 blackcat 於 2014-9-28 16:48 編輯

EC預測分裂成2個系統這種變數真的誇張大
而GFS持續預測99W會是個有強度且路徑變化大的系統
GFS因為對槽線很敏感所以對秋冬系統掌握度還不賴
而EC則是先看看吧...有鑒於對上次北冕前期預測有點落差...

ben811018 · 2014-9-28 16:35

krichard2011 · 2014-9-28 13:42

目前結構上還趨於鬆散
整體螺旋性甚至比剛編號擾動的時候還來的差
還需要一些時間來做整合
目前附近環境大致還不錯
GFS目前是支持發展的路徑也一改先前提早北上的路徑
往西修到侵襲沖繩一帶後北上路徑方面仍有變數

krichard2011 · 2014-9-28 13:20

話說99W 又重新發布TCFA 了 @@

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 159.9E TO 14.0N 152.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N
158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
159.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SMALL, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 272304Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
PTPN, 180NM SOUTH, SHOW LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

zjk369 · 2014-9-28 11:38

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-9-28 13:28 編輯

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-200.42,40.42,512五台共旋

juchu · 2014-9-28 08:14

以小J最新48小時預測圖來看
事實上之前EC預測會接近台灣的應該是99W西邊那坨雲發展起來的系統
不過EC最新一報已經大改
預測99W會暫時抑制西邊雲系發展
並朝往日本前進
雖然後來還是有出現新系統出現但是畢竟日子還久變數更大
目前99W也被老J降評
究竟這兩個系統會如何演變只能繼續看下去

蜜露 · 2014-9-28 00:05

本帖最後由蜜露於 2014-9-28 00:06 編輯

現在發展有點受到抑制.

西側疑似分離另一個系統

不過我比較保守..兩個系統距離比較近..

兩個互旋感覺可不容易..

不過歷史上西太曾經有過一段活躍期. 就是90年代的聖嬰現象.

其中1990年奧文比芝 , 1991年耐特密瑞兒 , 歐凱特帕特 , 1992年蓋伊漢特 , 1994年弗恩薇爾達 , 1997年艾文瓊恩.

是同時共旋,也是同天強度極端的颱風. 而且都是附近的系統生成

特別是1992年的漢特蓋伊疑似是同個系統之後分離發展的..而西側的漢特移速較快. 東側的蓋伊無法追上.
兩個都是強度較強的颱風.後者還是更極端的.

5天後獨自發展