1419 黃蜂年度全球風王形態近乎完美

jick810530 · 2014-10-3 09:23

日本氣象青已經發出GW了囉
熱帯低気圧
平成26年10月03日10時20分発表


<03日09時の実況>
大きさ	-
強さ	-
	熱帯低気圧
存在地域	マーシャル諸島
中心位置	北緯 7度55分(7.9度)
	東経 159度40分(159.7度)
進行方向、速さ	西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧	1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速	15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速	23m/s(45kt)

<04日09時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	マーシャル諸島
予報円の中心	北緯 11度00分(11.0度)
	東経 156度30分(156.5度)
進行方向、速さ	北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧	998hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速	25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径	220km(120NM)

zu00818733 · 2014-10-3 07:06

老J搶先一步升格!~~
不過總感覺...可能又是日本貨?

millerkit31 · 2014-10-2 17:17

90W從雲圖看,强度未來應不錯,旋轉度明顯。未來48小時應大概受北面副高引導快速向西北西移動。然而,這種遠洋4分球貨色,用下列句子形容最貼切:
山長水又遠,要來真不易;若是能近菲,西槽別進來!!!

Meow · 2014-10-2 16:32

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-10-2 16:41 編輯

JMA 升格到 TD 了

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 07N 163E WNW SLOWLY.

ktf · 2014-10-2 12:48

90W發展會持續順利,副高勢力還不錯不是痿縮大幅東退到遠洋
將來路徑就看巴逢北上後副高的位置而定
能否更靠近還得看之後的西風槽臉色

不過現在是西北太的高峰期
副高勢力還可以,越赤道西風也活躍還有東北季風開始參戰
東亞的大氣波動很活躍

shadow16 · 2014-10-2 11:19

本帖最後由 shadow16 於 2014-10-2 11:45 編輯

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 165.2E TO 9.1N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 163.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
165.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD
AREA OF TURNING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012230Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE (5 TO 10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS A
POINT SOURCE REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN

krichard2011 · 2014-10-2 01:26

JTWC 稍早評級為 Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 165.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A PERSISTENT AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2014-10-2 00:48

又是一個未來充滿變數的系統
GFS大幅調西到從台灣北部海面通過
SSD也評價這個系統T1.0/1.0
不過同樣的GFS預測還相當後期
可以先稍微注意一下就好

TXPQ22 KNES 011516
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B.  01/1432Z

C.  5.8N

D.  165.3E

E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SCHWARTZ