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1922 麥德姆→Bulbul 近岸爆發 殘餘於孟加拉灣增強達VSCS

簽到天數: 2791 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-10-31 15:08 | 顯示全部樓層
CWB難得在JMA停編之後繼續發報,06Z降TD
第 28 號熱帶性低氣壓(原 麥德姆 颱風)

》現況
2019年10月31日14時
      中心位置 北緯 13.50 度 東經 105.50 度
      過去移動方向   西
      過去移動時速   27 公里
      中心氣壓   1004 百帕
      近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
      瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
》預測
預測 12 小時平均移向移速為
     西 時速 20 公里
     預測 11月01日02時
     中心在 北緯 13.80 度 東經 103.30 度
     中心氣壓   1006 百帕
     近中心最大風速 12 公尺/秒
     瞬間之最大陣風 20 公尺/秒
     七級風半徑--公里
     70%機率半徑 120 公里

Download_PTA_201910310600_TD28_zhtw.png

full_disk_ahi_true_color.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-11-1 22:45 | 顯示全部樓層
殘留雲系進入北印度洋。 20191101.1410.himawari-8.ir.23W.MATMO.15kts.1007mb.14.3N.99.5E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-2 21:58 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-2 22:20 編輯

據NRL02/06Z定位,23W已進入孟加拉灣
23W MATMO 191102 0600 14.0N 97.6E WPAC 15 1010

sfcplot_23W_latest.png 23W_gefs_latest.png
20191102.1320.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.23WMATMO.15kts-1010mb-140N-976E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-4 05:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-4 05:16 編輯

JTWC 03/18Z對已進入北印之23W殘餘雲系擾動(原西太麥德姆颱風,JTWC圖片誤載為RMNTS TD 24W)評級Low。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
96.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW
5-10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 030343Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS
SHOWS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ESTIMATED AT 29-30C ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SLOW-DEVELOPING SYSTEM NOT
REACHING BASIN WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KNOTS UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF
INDIA AS IT CONSOLIDATES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO LOW.
abpwsair (1).jpg 20191103.2010.himawari-8.ir.23W.MATMO.15kts.1006mb.13.3N.94.9E.100pc.jpg

數值預報亦看好未來重新發展。
23W_gefs_latest.png esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.loop.23W.2019.2019110312.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-4 08:50 | 顯示全部樓層
jrchang5 發表於 2019-11-4 05:12
JTWC 03/18Z對已進入北印之23W殘餘雲系擾動(原西太麥德姆颱風,JTWC圖片誤載為RMNTS TD 24W)評級Low。

到了早晨,JTWC才偷偷把圖中誤載的24W改回23WXD
abpwsair0842.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-11-5 00:30 | 顯示全部樓層
對流爆發,數值皆有反應。
20191104.1600.himawari-8.ircolor.23W.MATMO.25kts.1005mb.13.7N.92.2E.100pc.jpg

23W_gefs_latest.png

71B.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-5 02:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC04/1800Z提升評級至Medium
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 514
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041556Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-
31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPICTING A SLOW-
DEVELOPING SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 WHILE ON A
MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMNANTS OF 23W IS BEING ASSESSED AS MEDIUM BASED ON ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE THE LATE FORMATION TIMELINE IN GLOBAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair115.jpg vis0.gif
wv0.gif swir015.gif
e244c8fcc3cec3fd1a30ee01d988d43f8794270a.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-11-5 15:18 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD編號BOB 04,上望VSCS
BOB04.png

BOB04 TRACK.png

20191105.0640.himawari-8.ircolor.23W.MATMO.20kts.1007mb.13.2N.91E.100pc.jpg
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