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01P.Rita 曾增強達澳式C3 南半球風季首擾首旋

簽到天數: 868 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-25 10:27 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-25 10:37 編輯

FMS判定25/00Z升格為澳式二級熱帶氣旋。
HURRICANE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 250210 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH 169.7
EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 169.7E at 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
250600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.9S 170.1E AT 251200UTC AND NEAR 13.8S 170.2E AT
260000UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013.
65660.gif
JTWC亦判定同一時間升C1。
WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 13 NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 242150Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE 65 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH A STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN TC 01P WESTWARD. DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL HALT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12 AND
STEADY WEAKENING WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NAVGEM IS THE
SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING TC 01P GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AS SEVERAL MEMBERS
STALL THE SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS ACCELERATE IT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//
NNNN
sh0120.gif rgb_lalo-animated.gif rbtop_lalo-animated.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-11-25 16:54 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS判定25/06Z再升為澳式C3。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 250753 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 977HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
170.1E AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
TC RITA MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65
KNOTS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 06 HOURS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE DIFFLUENT REGION WITH LOW
WIND SHEAR. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. RITA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATE EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG SURROUND YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 MET AND
PT AGREE WITH DT. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 13.2S 170.3E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 13.9S 170.2E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 14.5S 170.0E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 14.9S 169.8E MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 251400 UTC.
65660.gif rgb_lalo-animated.gif rb_lalo-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2019-11-27 10:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於26/18Z發出最終報,27/00Z判定減弱為TD
01P RITA 191127 0000 15.2S 168.6E SHEM 30 1000
WTPS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 168.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 168.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 15.4S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 168.8E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS EXPOSED LLCC. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0
(30 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
TRANSITING AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DRY AIR WRAPS
INTO THE SYSTEM WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS) AND VERY
MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AS 01P TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWEST IT WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN
sh0120.gif 060621e4w5i94oiv11kkk5.jpg
24295.jpg SHGMSCOL.jpg


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