簽到天數: 2095 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2022-2-12 14:53
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JTWC評級Medium，預估未來仍趨向馬達加斯加
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 63.1E, APPROXIMATELY 563NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS 94S HAS
REMAINED PRIMARLY QUASI-STATIONARY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A BULLSEYE 111545Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, WITH A STRONG FEEDER BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLC. UNFORTUNATELY, NO ASCAT DATA WAS AVAILABLE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CURRENTLY, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), LOW - MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CURRENT DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OF 94S. ECMWF IS TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE
APPROACH WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF 94S AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM. 
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