alu

  熱帶風暴  
編號：02 C
名稱：Keli

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 07 月 27 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 07 月 28 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 07 月 30 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1006 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
CP, 91, 2025072806,   , BEST,   0, 119N, 1423W,  30, 1009, DB,  34, NEQ,









Tropical Weather Outlook Text        
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.

1. Eastern portion of the Central Pacific (CP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small low
pressure area located about 950 miles southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is showing signs of organization and have persisted
overnight.  If current trends continue, a tropical depression or
storm is likely to develop later this morning or this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Forecaster Brown
以上資料來自：CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

alu

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   1

NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

Satellite data indicate that a new tropical depression has formed
over the central Pacific basin a little less than 400 n mi
east-northeast of Hurricane Iona. ASCAT data from several hours ago
indicated that the system had a well-defined circulation
with maximum winds of about 30 kt north of the center. More
recently, microwave images show that the system is very compact, and
its cloud pattern extends no more than 90 n mi across. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
latest satellite intensity estimates. It should be noted that the
formation of this system was poorly predicted by most of the
models. The small size of the depression, the complexity of the
ITCZ breakdown, and close proximity to Iona all contributed to the
forecasting difficulties.

The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, but this motion is
somewhat uncertain since it has only recently formed. The system is
expected to continue westward, following Iona, during the next few
days as it remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge.
The cyclone might move a little south of due west late in the week
when it is expected to weaken and move in the low-level flow. The
official track forecast generally follows the various consensus
aids.

The environmental conditions could favor a little strengthening
during the next day or so while the depression is over relatively
warm water, embedded in a moist airmass, and in generally low shear
conditions. However, as Iona gets stronger by the middle of the
week, its outflow will likely impinge on the depression. This should
end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening.  In fact,
the models show little to no strengthening and seem to have a poor
grasp on the cyclone. Therefore, the official intensity forecast
lies above all of the guidance in the short term given recent trends
and the system’s current structure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 12.0N 143.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 12.0N 144.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 12.0N 146.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 12.0N 148.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 12.0N 151.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  31/0000Z 11.9N 154.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  31/1200Z 11.7N 157.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  01/1200Z 11.0N 162.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

king111807

命名報02C.Keli

000
WTPA42 PHFO 282034
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Keli Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025

ASCAT data from around 1830 Z showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds just north of the center of the system.
Based on that data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical
storm Keli with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Although the winds
are estimated to be higher than earlier this morning, satellite
images indicate that the deep convection has generally decreased
during the past few hours. Keli is a very compact storm with its
associated cloud field extending only about 90 n mi across.

The storm is moving westward at about 9 kt. Keli is expected to
continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it
remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The latest
track models have trended a little to the north and are faster this
cycle, and the official forecast has been nudged in those
directions.

The environmental conditions could favor a little more strengthening
during the next day or so while the storm is over relatively warm
water, embedded in a moist air mass, and in generally moderate
shear conditions. By the middle of the week, however, Iona's outflow
will likely impinge on the cyclone. These unfavorable upper-level
winds and stable air should end the opportunity for strengthening
and cause weakening. Most of the models show Keli dissipating in
about 2 days, except for the GFS which hangs on to the cyclone for
about 3 days. Based on the latest guidance, the official forecast
has moved up dissipation by 24 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 12.1N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 12.1N 146.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 12.1N 148.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 12.3N 151.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 12.3N 153.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  31/0600Z 12.2N 156.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  31/1800Z 11.9N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi