1206 杜蘇芮解除海上颱風警報

flrd88 · 2012-6-28 22:43

他左側目前位在南海上的對流好可怕，又大又圓，好詭異的颱風 !

中心和對流各自發展，被風切擊碎怎麼對流還能一直爆發?
對流越來越大範圍

abc84484422 · 2012-6-28 22:55

本帖最後由 abc84484422 於 2012-6-28 22:58 編輯

麻友飯發表於 2012-6-28 21:47
香港天文台剛才在睌上9時40分發出了1號戒備訊號(放鞭炮!!)

香港好像很久沒有放一號了齁!?

不過這個颱風對流爆發~ 風力以登錄點來說的話大概可以刮到12級強陣風

香港沒有地震所以很多東西沒有固定的很牢靠(去年去過~ 你應該是香港人~ 小心被東西砸到喔

supraexe · 2012-6-28 23:01

abc84484422 發表於 2012-6-28 22:55
香港好像很久沒有放一號了齁!?

對了香港人對防風的意識很低

ben811018 · 2012-6-28 23:11

abc84484422 發表於 2012-6-28 22:55
香港好像很久沒有放一號了齁!?

真可惜只掃到一半...

南海這塊對流爆發的相當旺盛不過在未來幾個小時就不會這麼瘋狂了

中心只在強對流的邊邊角角

這種對流爆發的很沒意義對颱風本身的結構幫助也不大

因為LLCC不穩定各機構也都出現尷尬的定位重新定位的不在少數

不過咱們的CWB沒有出現明顯的修正~這次表現還不錯有達到一定的水準

ben811018 · 2012-6-28 23:20

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED AND DEEPENED FROM THE SHEARED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOW HIDDEN UNDER THE CDO. THIS DEVELOPMENT INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD MULTIPLE VORTICES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW DOMINANT VORTEX EMERGING REMAINS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM LAOAG, 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE VWS HAS WEAKENED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.
簡單來說 JTWC認為目前CDO正在建立且周圍風切在過去六小時呈現減弱的狀態
此外目前07W有多個渦旋及一個新形成的渦旋存在