jwpk9899

我知道我已經連續發了三帖了
不過 BOM在登陸前將它命名了是事實...
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0629 UTC 21/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Oswald
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 141.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [075 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 14.5S 142.1E:     040 [070]:  030  [055]:  993
+24: 22/0600: 13.9S 143.1E:     065 [120]:  020  [035]:  998
+36: 22/1800: 14.5S 144.1E:     085 [155]:  020  [035]:  997
+48: 23/0600: 15.5S 144.1E:     105 [190]:  020  [035]:  997
+60: 23/1800: 16.6S 143.6E:     120 [225]:  020  [035]:  997
+72: 24/0600: 17.4S 143.1E:     140 [265]:  020  [035]:  997
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on a log 10
spiral. DT is 3.0. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT
based on DT.

Northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Some numerical
guidance indicates more NNE'ly movement after 6 hours, but will assume this
occurs after landfall at this stage.

CX723-A330

這個11P增強的速度真快(下圖來自維基百科):


風眼隱隱約現,看下去根本不像一個65 km/h的熱帶氣旋:L
只是它很快便要登陸約克角半島,登陸後風眼應該會消失了

阿隆

登陸前夕中心附近底層有轉漸鬆散,不過這樣的對流帶給半島上的壓力應還是不小吧?

JTWC第1報:強度初報只上看40kts,路徑預測未來將不會出海,然後繼續深入昆士蘭各省份:L...

麻友飯

接續上文:
JTWC對Oswald的預測有點厲害
FORECAST DATA

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
21 Jan, 18:00	12 hrs	15.2 S	141.7 E	40 kts	TS	To 12 hrs	To 12 hrs	N/A
22 Jan, 6:00	24 hrs	14.7 S	142.9 E	40 kts	TS	To 24 hrs	To 24 hrs	N/A
22 Jan, 18:00	36 hrs	14.8 S	143.6 E	40 kts	TS	To 36 hrs	To 36 hrs	N/A
23 Jan, 6:00	48 hrs	15.6 S	143.9 E	40 kts	TS	To 48 hrs	To 48 hrs	N/A
24 Jan, 6:00	72 hrs	16.6 S	144.0 E	40 kts	TS	To 72 hrs	To 72 hrs	N/A
25 Jan, 6:00	96 hrs	17.7 S	144.3 E	35 kts	TS	To 96 hrs	To 96 hrs	N/A
26 Jan, 6:00	120 hrs	18.8 S	144.9 E	35 kts	TS	To 120 hrs	To 120 hrs	N/A

登陸後72小時都能維持40kts的強度
可能與登陸後通過的
<400m高地平原(Plateau)較矮有關

jwpk9899

剛剛發現 JTWC好像已經FW了....連報文都撤了....
看看未來會不會再發展囉...

阿隆

阿隆

上午已併入95P,中心正通過約克角降為25kts(對流未衰),就視能否順利進入海上?屆時才可期待風雲再起!:curse:

jwpk9899

評級又升
到了MEDIUM囉~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY  
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E,  
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED  
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN  
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS  
EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z  
SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE  
YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES  
TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR  
THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER  
THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL  
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK  
OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE  
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED  
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL  
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.