THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 136.4E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A 251230Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A RIDGE AXIS, WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
136.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 137.0E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH
OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN RADAR DATA FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. NEARBY SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE NEAR 999 MB AND SUSTAINED WINDS, OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS, OF ABOUT 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG EASTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
CLOSE TO LAND, AND MAY TRACK INLAND BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE
CONSOLIDATES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S) HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FLARING AROUND A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR ANIMATION
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, DEPICTS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN
DEFINITION OF THE LLCC THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ERRATICALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. OBSERVATIONS FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATE WINDS THAT RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WHILE SEA LEVEL PRESSURES HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED T0 1006 MILLIBARS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BROADLY
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE RECENT MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM BACK OVER WATER AND
INCREASE IN THE DEFINITION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
照妖鏡
