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krichard2011|2013-12-20 21:29
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-12-20 21:34 編輯
MFR這一報正式上看 Very Intense Tropical Cyclone
如果成真 應該會成為南印近年來最強旋
不過這報強度尚未調升...
WTIO30 FMEE 201315
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20132014
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BRUCE)
2.A POSITION 2013/12/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 87.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 180 SW: 170 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/21 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/12/21 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/12/22 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/12/22 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/23 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/12/23 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/12/24 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2013/12/25 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0- CI=6.5-
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