12P.Edna 漸入高緯轉化中＊

t02436 · 2014-2-4 09:31

為什麼TCFA的帖不見了= =

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 157.4E, APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031642Z NOAA-18
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, BEGINNING TO TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436 · 2014-2-4 17:24

節錄部分報文
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8
SOUTH 160.1 EAST AT 040600 UTC.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO45 KNOTS BY 041800 UTC.
FMS認為06Z跨越160E進到其責任區
並立即重新升格
名稱依舊是Edna
18Z上望45KT

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 17:53

FNMOC更新終於恢復正常了
反而換成NRL出了一點狀況 = =
從底層掃描來看
這個系統的低層結構雖然來是略鬆散
不過看得出來有開始整合起來的趨勢
螺旋性也比之前改善了一些...

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 20:25

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-2-4 20:27 編輯

對流明顯爆發似乎是在建立CDO的樣子
環境方面目前應該處於安全地帶
垂直風切相當弱北側水氣供應該不成問題
個人滿看好這隻發展的...
此外這個系統 FMS 編號12F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0757 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA 12F CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
160.1E AT 040600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

t02436 · 2014-2-4 20:44

老J終於升格了...
12Z升12P
路徑等等出來再補

好一段時間沒看到南半球那麼多隻了...

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 21:07

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-2-4 21:09 編輯

老J對未來的預測完全看衰
巔峰只上看40kts = =
不知道是不是考慮到西南邊的大片乾區

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 21:25

呃...就連FMS本身也不看好 = =
預測明天下午那報就會減弱成TD
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1
SOUTH 161.5 EAST AT 041200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.

REPEAT POSITION 17.1S 161.5E at 041200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO
30 KNOTS BY 050600 UTC.