18P.Lusi 漸入高緯轉化中

KINGRIC · 2014-3-9 11:30

經過一段時間的整合
他的樣子終於已經好一點了
中心附近對流爆發
螺旋性也變得更明顯
環境方面定位附近的風切還滿弱的
水氣供應上大致沒有問題除了高層幅散有待加強
環境大致支持發展...

t02436 · 2014-3-9 13:28

KINGRIC · 2014-3-9 16:44

本帖最後由 KINGRIC 於 2014-3-9 17:06 編輯

JTWC發布TCFA
補上報文... CDO大致已建立起來

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW HIGH.

t02436 · 2014-3-9 17:15

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-3-9 17:16 編輯

FMS稍早也升格TD
中心近似滯留中
36-48小時候命名

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 168.4E
AT 090600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PERSISTANT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. CYCLONIC EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT OF 1.5,
MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT THUS, T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTHWEST MOVEMENT AND THEN RECURVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD18F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 14.9S 167.8E MOV WNW AT 03 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 15.0S 167.8E MOV W AT 01 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 15.4S 168.6E MOV SE AT 01 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 16.2S 170.1E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE