簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2014-4-12 17:25
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JTWC : REMAINS MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 05W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ALBEIT DEFINED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 120130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE MAX WINDS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) LOCATED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES ALONG THE FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
GFS預測05W登陸菲東西移便散了....
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