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23P.Ita 澳洲本季最強 登陸澳洲昆士蘭

簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-7 12:30 | 顯示全部樓層
低層眼大概已經轉出來了
接下來就差高層眼
不過眼牆對流還是有很大的進步空間
倒是對流已經轉成這樣 也算是有很大的進步了
環境相當支持 接下來將逐漸增強

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-7 13:04 | 顯示全部樓層
最新一張底層 CDO大致完整
不過話說這眼真得好大...
眼牆待進一步緊縮鞏固後強度可望上衝


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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-7 15:17 | 顯示全部樓層
這一報強度升澳式C2 稍早底層眼牆建立之後
目前中心對流也有爆出的趨勢...
CDO有正在加強的趨勢

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ita was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal nine south (11.9S)
longitude one hundred and fifty three decimal three east (153.3E)
Recent movement : northwest at 2 knots
Maximum winds   : 50 knots
Central pressure: 987 hPa

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-7 16:32 | 顯示全部樓層
補上完整報文
導引氣流不太明顯 過去移動速度2kt
幾乎近似滯留 該不會是想要原地增強...

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 07/04/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.9S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [324 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  07/1200: 11.9S 153.0E:     030 [060]:  055  [100]:  983
+12:  07/1800: 11.8S 152.6E:     045 [080]:  060  [110]:  979
+18:  08/0000: 11.8S 152.1E:     055 [105]:  060  [110]:  980
+24:  08/0600: 11.7S 151.6E:     070 [130]:  065  [120]:  976
+36:  08/1800: 11.6S 150.3E:     090 [165]:  075  [140]:  969
+48:  09/0600: 11.7S 148.9E:     110 [200]:  080  [150]:  964
+60:  09/1800: 12.1S 147.3E:     130 [235]:  080  [150]:  965
+72:  10/0600: 12.5S 145.9E:     145 [270]:  080  [150]:  964
+96:  11/0600: 13.7S 143.4E:     190 [355]:  070  [130]:  973
+120: 12/0600: 15.1S 141.4E:     280 [515]:  040  [075]:  993
REMARKS:
The Dvorak analysis of was based on a curved band pattern in both Vis and IR over the past few images with an average of 0.85 degree wrap, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT give 3.5. FT was based primarily on DT, but MET and PT support this in any case, supporting a cat 2, 50 knot system. This is qualitatively supported by recent microwave passes.

Tropical Cyclone Ita has become slow-moving in the past few hours under weak steering influences, however the mid level trough over the eastern Coral Sea should continue to move eastwards, allowing the mid-level ridge to develop to the southwest of Its. This should lead to the system resuming a general westwards track over the next few days under the influence of this mid-level ridge.
  
Vertical shear estimates from the AMSU instument suggested a consistent 15 to 20 knots of deep layer westerly shear over the system up until late yesterday, which was severely hampering development, and was conistent with the visual satellite presentation of the cyclone, with deep convection confined mainly to the southeast quadrant. However, in the past 12 to 18 hours, the AMSU indicates a significant reduction in vertical shear, which is also conistent with convection beginning to develop on the western flank. Thus, the system is coming into a favourable environment for further development with weak vertical wind shear expected to persist. Sea surface temperatures are greater than 27 degrees along most of its forecast track, although there is some reduction in ocean heat content, this should not prevent further intensification.
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-8 08:00 | 顯示全部樓層
過去一段時間幾乎都在原地打轉
甚至有一段時間是往東北飄的
時速只有1kt 中心近似滯留
Movement Towards: northeast [044 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [1 km/h]
眼牆在過去一段時間眼牆也有略為緊縮的趨勢
不過可能多少受到陸地的干擾
眼牆還是無法完整鞏固起來 稍嫌鬆散
不過向西移動之後 可望進到一大片絕佳的環境
垂直風切幾乎沒有 海溫又支持且沒有乾空氣阻擾
發展令人期待...
JTWC也於剛剛升格Cat.1 後期上看Cat.3





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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-8 09:50 | 顯示全部樓層
BOM這報升格澳式C3 上看澳式C4
不過過去移動速度0 = =
完全原地不動.....
可見導引氣流非常弱

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0115 UTC 08/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 153.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  08/0600: 11.8S 152.9E:     030 [060]:  065  [120]:  976
+12:  08/1200: 11.6S 152.4E:     045 [080]:  070  [130]:  972
+18:  08/1800: 11.6S 151.7E:     055 [105]:  070  [130]:  973
+24:  09/0000: 11.7S 151.1E:     070 [130]:  075  [140]:  968
+36:  09/1200: 12.0S 149.5E:     090 [165]:  080  [150]:  965
+48:  10/0000: 12.5S 147.8E:     110 [200]:  085  [155]:  960
+60:  10/1200: 12.9S 146.5E:     130 [235]:  085  [155]:  959
+72:  11/0000: 13.7S 145.3E:     145 [270]:  090  [165]:  955
+96:  12/0000: 15.1S 143.3E:     190 [355]:  045  [085]:  990
+120: 13/0000: 16.7S 142.9E:     280 [515]:  025  [045]: 1001

REMARKS:
Using EMBD Centre with a 1.1 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5.  MET is
also 4.5, though it is arguable that the 21Z image from 27 hours ago had a LG
eye with a LG surround, though this was a very transient feature at the time.
Now 12 hour-old Ascat data showed numerous values near the centre of at least 50
knots, broadly consistent with the current DT.  

TC Ita remains near stationary, trapped between mid level ridges over eastern
Australia and to Ita's east.  The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is
expected to ridge zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea
over the next few days, thereby inducing the forecast westward motion.  Towards
the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching
upper trough, with some models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and
thereby allowing Ita to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria, whilst other global
models introduce an upper trough of sufficient amplitude that Ita remains in the
Coral Sea or moves over northern Queensland.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow.  The system
is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be
favourable for development, though allowances have been made for the high
terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term.

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-4-8 20:12 | 顯示全部樓層
這系統底層眼牆建立似乎不是很順利
似乎受到地形的關係 有稍微影響到底層的整合
不過剛剛看了一下Google Earth
那小島的海拔高度只有100~300m 應該不成影響吧?
但最新一張底層 強對流似乎又有開始繞起來的趨勢
就看這次能不能成功整合起來
BOM上看100KT


IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 08/04/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.8S
Longitude: 152.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: D4.5/4.5/S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  08/1200: 11.7S 152.4E:     030 [060]:  065  [120]:  978
+12:  08/1800: 11.7S 151.7E:     045 [080]:  070  [130]:  975
+18:  09/0000: 11.8S 151.0E:     055 [105]:  070  [130]:  975
+24:  09/0600: 11.9S 150.2E:     070 [130]:  075  [140]:  971
+36:  09/1800: 12.4S 148.2E:     090 [165]:  080  [150]:  968
+48:  10/0600: 12.8S 146.4E:     110 [200]:  090  [165]:  957
+60:  10/1800: 13.4S 145.2E:     130 [235]:  100  [185]:  947
+72:  11/0600: 14.1S 143.9E:     145 [270]:  095  [175]:  952
+96:  12/0600: 16.0S 142.5E:     190 [355]:  025  [045]: 1003
+120: 13/0600: 18.2S 144.5E:     280 [515]:  025  [045]: 1006

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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-4-8 21:07 | 顯示全部樓層
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 152.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [276 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa

Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 08/1800: 11.7S 151.8E: 030 [060]: 070 [130]: 975
+12: 09/0000: 11.8S 151.1E: 045 [080]: 070 [130]: 975
+18: 09/0600: 11.9S 150.3E: 055 [105]: 075 [140]: 971
+24: 09/1200: 12.1S 149.3E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 971
+36: 10/0000: 12.6S 147.3E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 963
+48: 10/1200: 13.0S 145.9E: 110 [200]: 095 [175]: 952
+60: 11/0000: 13.7S 144.6E: 130 [235]: 105 [195]: 942
+72: 11/1200: 14.3S 143.4E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 992
+96: 12/1200: 16.4S 142.8E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 13/1200: 18.7S 145.5E: 280 [515]: 025 [045]: 1006
BoM與JTWC預報上有分歧
12Z BoM認為將直接撞進東北角
話說減弱有那麼快嗎@@?

JTWC則認為會沿東澳掃過一次...





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點評

可以肯定的是 Bom 參考EC 而JTWC則是參考GFS  發表於 2014-4-8 21:13
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