甜心

過去一天從雲圖變化發現98w低氣壓的情況有要開始發展起來的情形，由下列雲圖/水氣可發現它過去這段時間的整合小有成果強度方面昨天也被升評LOW了今天進一步升評為Medium。

martin191919

開始分析了，T1.0

TPPN11 PGTW 170620

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 17/0532Z

C. 10.0N

D. 148.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/06HRS


G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 41NM

FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.0 AND PT IS A 1.0. DBO PT AS DT IS

OVERESTIMATED I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RAPP

麻友飯

各位早安安;P
早上醒來 98W昨天發展起來的小型核心對流都消失得無影無蹤

風切水平比起琵琶來得好
只是5-10KTS左右

附近海域幅散良好 幅合一般
不知對流衰減的原因是什麼呢?
大大請指教:loveliness:

t02436

降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N
148.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEVOLVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FLANKS. AN 180350Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LIMITED
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS
OVERALL BROADENED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE DEVOLVING STRUCTURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

you

老J(JTWC)提到98w受風切影響而減弱,不要少看它的影響啊！其實他一直也受影響，只是我們不發覺。

martin191919

98W的LLCC基本完整，只是風場沒有20kts那麼大，所以撤編是幾乎沒有可能




在日出前，中心西面對流有小爆發就如棉花糖，前幾日日出後又再消失得無影無蹤，此擾動起初受日際對流效應的影響還是比較大，加上又沒有固定且良好的水氣來源，同時只有一條槽為98W初始時帶來一些水氣。





不過好消息的是，所在地區的風切已經開始減弱，對流雲團也開始變造集中，GFS也預料98W會發展成TD-TS下限。然而高層整體仍是吹東風，不利CISK機制運行。但若對流爆發且雲團持續變得集中，今日MIDDLE也是有機會的。

martin191919

REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 190600MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZAPR2014//RMKS/1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 143.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED AND FLARING LINES OF CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THIS IS ALSO WELL CAPTURED IN AN 182357Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

甜心

今天98w低氣壓又開始發展起來了強度方面也逐漸提升當中，從下列入雲圖水氣雲圖當中可以發現它的結構在重整變的更為集中扎實了。