91P 近陸發展不佳對流消散

krichard2011 · 2014-4-24 11:46

由於昨晚對流大爆發跟昨天而言
今天的結構明顯改善很多
GFS數值持續預測這個系統潛力無限

t02436 · 2014-4-25 17:56

補貼...降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S
133.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTHWEST OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAMPERING CONVECTION, AND WEAK DIVERGENCE. THESE
FACTORS ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION FROM THE NEARBY COAST ARE
HAMPERING FURTHER CONSOLIATION OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE
DEGRADATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

=======

目前對流還是發展不佳...

krichard2011 · 2014-4-25 20:06

結構衰弱結構明顯減弱很多
現在就連GFS也不支持看好了
加上風切稍強發展上可能增添了一些變數

martin191919 · 2014-4-25 21:23

本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2014-4-25 21:26 編輯

JTWC 取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
134.9E, IS NOW EAST OF 135.0E, AND IS NOW BEING DISCUSSED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN, SEE REF
A (ABPW100 PGTW 251300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

t02436 · 2014-4-25 22:22

martin191919 發表於 2014-4-25 21:23
JTWC 取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S

其實報文不是取消評級的意思
而是從印度洋展望區(ABIO)轉移到太平洋展望區(ABPW)

13Z維持Low評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S
134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISORGANIZED LLCC. A 251008Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BROADLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.