1409 雷馬遜 1973年以來華南最強颱，登陸地災情慘重

krichard2011 · 2014-7-15 14:30

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-7-15 14:33 編輯

高層眼總算開始清空了
CDO相當緊實 SSD T值給5.5
估計等等JTWC應該會給 Cat.3
目前測到的最大風速出現在
San Jose, Northern Samar-Brgy South
平均風：44 km/hr
陣風：89 km/hr

Virac
平均風：33 km/hr
陣風：87 km/hr

TXPQ28 KNES 150350
TCSWNP

A.  09W (RAMMASUN)

B.  15/0232Z

C.  12.8N

D.  125.2E

E.  ONE/MTSAT

F.  T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H.  REMARKS...DT OF 5.5 IS BASED ON LG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED
IN W, AFTER A 0 EYE ADJUSTMENT AND A 0.5 SUBTRACTION FOR ELONGATION OF
THE WARMEST PIXELS. MET AND PT ARE 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

krichard2011 · 2014-7-15 14:52

JTWC這報給100 KT
但稍後會不會在修正更高就很難說了...@@
目前的樣子看起來很不錯

ekusutasii835 · 2014-7-15 14:53

本帖最後由 ekusutasii835 於 2014-7-15 14:56 編輯

2014/07/15 菲律賓北薩馬 University of Eastern Philippines
資料來源:https://www.facebook.com/Westpacwx/timeline

krichard2011 · 2014-7-15 15:53

這個樣子我覺得給Cat.4 應該都不是問題了
CMG環即將完成高層風眼幾明顯改善
不知到晚上還有沒有機會再調升不過以精快登陸了 = =
最大風速出現在Virac 52 km/hr 陣風 109 km/hr

krichard2011 · 2014-7-15 16:07

來一張稍早 MODIS Terra 的美圖
剛好掃中中間畫質應該還不錯

krichard2011 · 2014-7-15 17:26

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-7-15 17:28 編輯

根據PAGASA 最新資料
目前這個颱風位在阿爾拜灣
預計晚上登陸阿爾拜省

Forecast Positions: Typhoon “GLENDA” is expected to make landfall over Albay this evening then cross the Bicol Region towards Southern Luzon. It is expected to pass Metro Manila before noon tomorrow and in the vicinity of Bataan in the afternoon and will move towards the West Philippine Sea. By Thursday afternoon, it will be at 370 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

martin191919 · 2014-7-15 17:41

JMA再上85kts

** WTPQ21 RJTD 150900 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 1409 RAMMASUN (1409)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  150900UTC 13.1N 124.1E GOOD
MOVE  W 12KT
PRES  945HPA
MXWD  085KT
GUST  120KT
50KT  50NM
30KT  150NM
FORECAST
24HF  160900UTC 15.4N 120.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 13KT
PRES  965HPA
MXWD  075KT
GUST  105KT
45HF  170600UTC 17.5N 116.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 13KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  060KT
GUST  085KT
69HF  180600UTC 19.1N 111.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 11KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  060KT
GUST  085KT =

888894 · 2014-7-15 17:51

T值繼續上升!!

----- Current Analysis -----
   Date :  15 JUL 2014 Time : 090000 UTC
   Lat : 13:13:09 N    Lon :  123:59:21 E


            CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
            6.2 / 943.6mb/119.8kt


         Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
            6.2    6.6    6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp :  +5.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
               Weakening Flag : OFF
         Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii : 82km
  - Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name :  MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.8 degrees