t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
144.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 101124Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND THE CENTER AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP ALSO SHOW A 2 MB PRESSURE DROP OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VARYING IN THE TIME FRAME OF DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE SLIGHT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

目前對流增強相當猛烈

krichard2011

目前型態看起來已經相當良好
底層似乎已經開始建立當中
對流也明顯爆發...

blackcat

型態良好估計明天發GW/TCFA的機會高
目前強度預估最高只給到中颱下限(970百帕左右)
個人認為會更強(中颱上限)
而目前路徑主要以通過呂宋北部為主 當然還有調整空間

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 9.0N
144.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF
YAP. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING  LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 101210Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING SOME CONSOLIDATION COMPARED TO 12
HOURS AGO. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP INDICATE A DROP IN PRESSURE
OF 02 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VARYING LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION AND HIGH (20 TO 30 KTS) IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

分析T1.5

TPPN10 PGTW 101516
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SW OF GUAM)
B. 10/1432Z
C. 9.9N
D. 141.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6HRS.
INITIAL CLASSIFICATION MUST NOT EXCEED 1.5, SO DBO CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CHAPPOTIN

Meow

已升格為 TD 15W

WP, 15, 2014090900,   , BEST,   0,  91N, 1513E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 15, 2014090906,   , BEST,   0,  91N, 1502E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 15, 2014090912,   , BEST,   0,  92N, 1488E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 15, 2014090918,   , BEST,   0,  92N, 1475E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
WP, 15, 2014091000,   , BEST,   0,  91N, 1461E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  155,   0,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 15, 2014091006,   , BEST,   0,  90N, 1441E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  155,   0,   0,   0,
WP, 15, 2014091012,   , BEST,   0,  96N, 1426E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  170,  40,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 15, 2014091018,   , BEST,   0,  99N, 1411E,  25, 1004, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  210,  40,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,    FIFTEEN, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,         TRANSITIONED, wpF42014 to wp152014

Meow

第一報出來了，預期三級颱風登陸呂宋北部。



WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 141.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 141.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 11.4N 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 12.7N 134.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 13.3N 132.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 13.9N 130.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 15.6N 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.2N 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 18.6N 120.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 140.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. //
NNNN

Meow

JMA 還判定 LPA，這是 2011 年來首次比 JTWC 還慢的吧？:L

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 141E WEST SLOWLY.

蜜露

GFS 96+的預測 ..

認為路徑類似尤特 西馬隆.. 北上點就像戈登 ,另外我認為天兔路徑也有可能重現...
總之移到南海,可能誤差圈範圍延伸香港和海南的之間




個人扔然看好他的發展..
JTWC甚至還上望C3  = =

今年8月久久沒有颱風..似乎影響了風迷的瀏覽次數