krichard2011

稍早強度再提升來到澳式4級
風眼逐漸清空 算是在登陸前上演一場近岸爆發
目前附近以測得陣風79KT 估計約會在清晨左右登陸...

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 2:00 am EST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South 145.5 degrees East, estimated to be 25 kilometres north northeast of Cape Flattery and 85 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. The system has intensified to category 4, and is expected to cross at this intensity between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery during this morning.

t02436

14Z BoM升格四級強烈熱帶氣旋
即將登陸

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 1:00 am EST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South 145.6 degrees East, estimated to be 35 kilometres northeast of Cape Flattery and 90 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. The system has intensified to category 4, and is expected to cross at this intensity between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery during this morning.

	Time (EST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am March 20	4	14.7S	145.6E	15
+6hr	7 am March 20	3	14.7S	144.7E	40
+12hr	1 pm March 20	2	14.6S	143.7E	60
+18hr	7 pm March 20	tropical low	14.5S	142.8E	85
+24hr	1 am March 21	tropical low	14.3S	141.8E	105
+36hr	1 pm March 21	1	13.9S	140.0E	130
+48hr	1 am March 22	1	13.2S	138.0E	165
+60hr	1 pm March 22	1	12.5S	136.4E	185
+72hr	1 am March 23	1	12.1S	135.3E	220

Cape Flattery站點
目前觀測到最大持續風速53kts
最低氣壓994.4百帕




實測資料

Meow

一張圖說明 Nathan 和 Pam 有何不同

krichard2011

Nathan 已於當地時間清晨 4點登陸Cape Melville 與 Cape Flattery之間
Cape Flattery 的測站測到最大風速 65KT 陣風 89KT

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan made landfall at approximately 4am between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery on the far northeast Queensland coast as a category 4 cyclone. It has since moved inland and weakened to a category 3 cyclone. The cyclone is expected to continue its westward movement today while weakening further.

t02436

中心凌晨進入卡奔塔莉亞灣
00Z報開始由TCWC布里斯本交TCWC達爾文發報
預估還會增強至二級熱帶氣旋

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0133 UTC 21/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 140.2E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [289 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  21/0600: 13.5S 139.3E:     035 [070]:  045  [085]:  996
+12:  21/1200: 13.2S 138.4E:     050 [090]:  050  [095]:  994
+18:  21/1800: 12.9S 137.4E:     060 [115]:  060  [110]:  988
+24:  22/0000: 12.4S 136.5E:     075 [135]:  055  [100]:  988
+36:  22/1200: 11.5S 135.0E:     095 [175]:  045  [085]:  996
+48:  23/0000: 10.9S 133.9E:     115 [210]:  035  [065]: 1000
+60:  23/1200: 10.7S 133.0E:     130 [245]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  24/0000: 10.8S 132.3E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]: 1002
+96:  25/0000: 12.0S 131.5E:     195 [365]:  025  [045]: 1002
+120: 26/0000: 12.7S 129.9E:     285 [525]:  020  [035]: 1005
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Nathan has now moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria and is
redeveloping. Confidence in location is high, based on visible satellite imagery
and radar.

Satellite imagery shows improved convection yielding a DT=3.0. PAT agrees but
MET is not possible due to length of time spent over Cape York Peninsula in the
last 24 hours.

Confidence in the forecast track across the Gulf of Carpentaria remains high
with the firm mid-level ridge expected to remain in place, and NWP model tracks
showing tight clustering as a consequence. Tropical Cyclone Nathan is in a
favourable environment for further development in the Gulf of Carpentaria with
sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees and CIMMS winds indicating 10 knots
of shear along the forecast track and good upper divergence on the southern side
due to an upper trough.

Most NWP guidance concur that redevelopment should occur quickly and at this
stage it is anticipated it is likely to reach high end category 2 strength prior
to crossing the northeast Top End on Sunday morning.

In the longer term, Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to weaken due to
increase in shear and the entrainment of dry air.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

JTWC則上看C1

krichard2011

眼牆似乎在重建中
環境也相當不錯 不過已經相當靠近陸地
預計明天早上就會登陸 整合時間稍短
能不能重新整合成功 這幾個小時大概就是關鍵

krichard2011

底層眼牆差不多已經重新整合完成了
但由於已經快登陸 加上可能地形的干擾
高層風眼要重新開眼的機會應該不高

t02436

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 22/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 136.8E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [310 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  22/0600: 12.0S 136.0E:     010 [020]:  050  [095]:  993
+12:  22/1200: 11.5S 135.4E:     025 [045]:  045  [085]:  996
+18:  22/1800: 11.1S 134.9E:     035 [070]:  040  [075]:  998
+24:  23/0000: 10.9S 134.5E:     050 [090]:  040  [075]:  997
+36:  23/1200: 10.7S 133.8E:     070 [130]:  035  [065]: 1000
+48:  24/0000: 11.0S 133.2E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]: 1002
+60:  24/1200: 11.7S 132.6E:     110 [200]:  030  [055]: 1003
+72:  25/0000: 12.4S 132.0E:     125 [235]:  025  [045]: 1005
+96:  26/0000: 13.2S 129.8E:     170 [315]:  025  [045]: 1005
+120: 27/0000: 13.3S 127.2E:     260 [480]:  020  [035]: 1008
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Nathan is approaching landfall on the NE Arnhem coast just
south of Nhulunbuy [Gove peninsula].

Location is very good based on Gove radar and shows a much improved structure
with a tight eye wall developing and good spiral bands. Sustained gales are
being experienced at Gove Airport to the north of the system centre, with
maximum gust of 53kt at 0004UTC.

Dvorak curved band of 1.2 wrap gives a DT=4.0. CDO technique with diameter 75nm
and banding feature also agrees. While there appears to be a warm centre, eye
pattern technique cannot be used due to narrowest width not meeting constraints
due to small size of system. Clear development over last 24hours with MET=4.0
and PAT agrees. So FT=4.0. Intensity is set at 60 knots.

Confidence in the forecast track in the short term remains high with the firm
mid-level ridge expected to remain in place, and NWP model tracks showing tight
clustering as a consequence. Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to weaken a
little over the next few hours due to land interaction.

In the longer term, Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to weaken due to
increasing shear and the entrainment of dry air.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

00Z UTC 第二度登陸
實測最大持續風速53Kts
預估後期出海將受到風切及乾空氣影響
所以不再看好增強

第二次登陸雷達動畫










第一次登陸約克角半島雷達動畫