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19S.Fantala 路徑曲折 新科南印風王誕生

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Meow|2016-4-16 13:34 | 顯示全部樓層
00Z的GFS預測已跟進ECMWF,折返後再轉西行接近馬達加斯加,不過GFS預測移動更慢,到第11天才登陸,不過強度比ECMWF預測得強不少。
image.png
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蜜露|2016-4-16 16:45 | 顯示全部樓層


最近這5小時各掃出, 連分辨率最差的AMSU底層有辦法看出轉好的趨勢.

20160416.0544.metopb.89rgb.19S.FANTALA.130kts.926mb.12.4S.57.1E.98pc.jpg


強度還有機會在上去 .  預報可能還會有一次巔峰

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_ind_5.png


路徑比預期更偏西了. 好像還會經過塞席爾群島 - Farquhar
SWI_20152016.png



點評

是喔~~~紀錄意外達成!!  發表於 2016-4-17 00:42
論壇第20萬篇帖子  發表於 2016-4-16 23:47
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Meow|2016-4-17 03:00 | 顯示全部樓層
這也能135kt:L

SH, 19, 2016041618,   , BEST,   0, 115S,  544E, 135,  922, ST,
2016SH19_4KMSRBDC_201604161800.jpg
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tpm630|2016-4-17 12:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 tpm630 於 2016-4-17 13:08 編輯

Fantala最近底層和極向流出都維持得很好,南方的針狀雲系一直非常明顯,也是它能長期維持在接近C4上限強度的原因。不過風眼始終無法清空,最新報仍是OW+W,上一報甚至是MG+CMG,真的很可惜,風眼問題讓他一直無法站上C5。
TPXS10 PGTW 170233

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA)

B. 17/0230Z

C. 10.81S

D. 53.05E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 6.5. DBO DT.

20160417.0330.meteo-7.ircolor.19S.FANTALA.135kts.922mb.11.1S.53.4E.100pc.jpg 20160417.0344.f18.91pct91h91v.19S.FANTALA.135kts.922mb.11.1S.53.4E.75pc.jpg

過去一段時間由於南邊的副高脊轉為西北東南向,他開始朝西北移動,也逐漸遠離槽線。因此極向流出接的角度有越來越勉強的感覺,疑似造成東南側風切微升,多少會影響結構穩定,稍早西南側看起來快崩了,真的不太值135kts的評價。另外OHC也不再支持,接下來挑戰更高強度要很拚,但也並不是不可能,只要眼溫來到WMG就很有機會。

wm5dlm2.GIF
wm5wvirZ.GIF

wm5shtZ.GIF

2016SH19_OHCNFCST_201604161800.GIF

JTWC預測它還會往西北移動將近2天,之後副高將被槽線打擊減弱,駛流轉由北邊的NER驅動,Fantala會先短暫停滯接著朝東南向移動。因為經過重疊的海域加上OHC本來就不高,到時候冷水上翻會很明顯,可能影響強度發展。不過之後極向流出會再度開掛,所以還是有增強可能。

sh1916.gif


點評

但JTWC最新報沒分析到 仍評價W+OW 維持130kts  發表於 2016-4-17 17:23
rawT因此衝到7.2...  發表於 2016-4-17 17:23
最新 WMG眼 !!  發表於 2016-4-17 16:54
眼溫則是幾乎都OW,甚至有更差的MG眼  發表於 2016-4-17 16:15
的確,對流寬度很不穩定,但JTWC不知為何每報都評價W環以上。  發表於 2016-4-17 16:15
底層厚實. 不過對流西測寬度不夠. 無法給出更高的強度研判是主因  發表於 2016-4-17 14:30

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krichard2011|2016-4-17 17:38 | 顯示全部樓層
這型態應該算是這幾天裡面最美的一張
另外 MFR 現在預測 轉彎後有再重新增強的機會
並且巔峰持續上看 ITC 頂
image-download.jpg
trajectoire.png
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 170613
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20152016
  5. 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA)
  6. 2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.6 S / 52.6 E
  8. (TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
  9. MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
  10. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/18 H
  11. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
  12. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
  13. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM
  14. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  15. 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 120
  16. 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 90
  17. 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
  18. 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
  19. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
  20. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

  21. 1.B FORECASTS:
  22. 12H: 2016/04/17 18 UTC: 10.0 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  23. 24H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  24. 36H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  25. 48H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  26. 60H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  27. 72H: 2016/04/20 06 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
  28. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
  29. 96H: 2016/04/21 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
  30. 120H: 2016/04/22 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

  31. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  32. T=CI=6.0+
  33. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FANTALA INTENSITY HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE EVEN
  34. IF THE LAST INFRARED IMAGERIES SHOW A CLEAR TOP CLOUDS COOLING.
  35. FANTALA MOVES CLOSER DANGEROUSLY TO FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO. FANTALA
  36. IS FORESCASTED TO CROSS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO DURING THE FIRST PART OF
  37. THE NIGHT TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED TO GUSTS
  38. AROUND 300 KM/H THE STORM SURGE SHOULD REACH 2 METERS LOCALLY,
  39. ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CORE.
  40. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
  41. AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF
  42. MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TODAY AND TOMOROW,
  43. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM
  44. FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE CENTRED WITHIN A COL WITH
  45. CONTRARY STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO BEGIN TO SLOW
  46. DOWN THIS NIGHT WHEN IT SHOULD TRANSIT CLOSER THE FARQUAHR ISLAND.
  47. TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A
  48. SLOW ABOUT-TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN
  49. STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. FROM
  50. WEDNESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
  51. UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
  52. NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
  53. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.
  54. THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATES RAPIDLY WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE
  55. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WITHOUT ANY EARLY INDICATIONS OF THE
  56. BEGINNING OF AN ERC AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT OF THE UPPER
  57. LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FANTALA IS LIKELY TO DEEPEN
  58. SLOWLY. FROM MONDAY, ON THE SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK, THE SELF INDUCED
  59. SST COOLING COULD BECOME THE MAIN FACTOR OF THE WEAKENING OF THE
  60. SYSTEM AS ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT.
  61. WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, THE UPPER
  62. LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE WITH AN INCREASING
  63. NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA SHOULD BEGIN A
  64. WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
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Meow|2016-4-17 17:49 | 顯示全部樓層
Terra截取4月17日馬達加斯加東北方強烈熱帶氣旋Fantala。

Fantala 2016-04-17 0645Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-04-17_0645Z.jpg
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蜜露|2016-4-17 20:06 | 顯示全部樓層



WMG眼出來後 .VIS圖已經有Cat.5的感覺. 有可能挑戰南印度洋連三年都有Cat.5 . 算是難得一見

算是個帥氣模樣的氣旋. 有點疑心. 但是合格的

20160417.0800.meteo-7.vis.19S.FANTALA.130kts.926mb.10.6S.52.6E.100pc.jpg


CIMSS的ADT似乎故障.  最高一度達CI 6.8

這個是正常的. 這次有可能直接升Cat.5

bandicam 2016-04-17 20-02-45-177.jpg



歐洲氣象組織的Meteosat 西印度區塊雲圖

FRAME_OIS_Met7-IR115Color-WIndianOcean_1604171100.jpg


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krichard2011|2016-4-17 20:57 | 顯示全部樓層
Suomi NPP 拍到的這張 更漂亮
風眼更為清晰 搭配螺旋雨帶 整體美感很不錯
Fantala-2016.04.17.jpg
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