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時隔將近11年,澳大利亞區域終於迎來120kt以上(對應T7.0)的熱帶氣旋。
- IDW27600
- TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
- Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
- at: 1836 UTC 07/04/2017
- Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie
- Identifier: 26U
- Data At: 1800 UTC
- Latitude: 15.9S
- Longitude: 110.4E
- Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
- Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
- Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
- Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 120 knots [220 km/h]
- Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 170 knots [315 km/h]
- Central Pressure: 922 hPa
- Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
- Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
- Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
- Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm [35 km]
- Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
- Dvorak Intensity Code: T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
- Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
- Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
- FORECAST DATA
- Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
- [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
- +06: 08/0000: 16.0S 110.3E: 025 [050]: 120 [220]: 928
- +12: 08/0600: 16.2S 110.0E: 040 [070]: 115 [215]: 931
- +18: 08/1200: 16.3S 109.6E: 050 [095]: 105 [195]: 941
- +24: 08/1800: 16.4S 109.1E: 065 [120]: 095 [175]: 953
- +36: 09/0600: 16.7S 107.7E: 085 [155]: 065 [120]: 977
- +48: 09/1800: 17.1S 105.9E: 105 [190]: 045 [085]: 992
- +60: 10/0600: 17.8S 103.8E: 125 [230]: 035 [065]: 999
- +72: 10/1800: 18.6S 101.6E: 140 [265]: 030 [055]: 1002
- +96: 11/1800: 20.3S 98.3E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1005
- +120: 12/1800: : : :
- REMARKS:
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was located using infrared satellite imagery. The
- position has low uncertainty due to a clearly defined eye.
- Dvorak Analysis: An eye pattern in EIR provides DT of 7.0 using cold white
- surround and a warm medium grey eye.Whilst this technically is breaking
- constraints over 24 hours, due to the consistency of DTs ranging between 6.5 to
- 7.0 over the past six hours the decision to have the system strength based on
- very rapid intensification due to satellite observations in the last 9 to 12
- hours was made. NESDIS ADT lagged in transitioning to an eye pattern and
- subsequently has FT numbers about 6.5. Satcon winds estimated 130 kt sustained
- winds. Intensity is set at 120 knots with a small radius of max winds, though
- with gales in a more extensive area in southern quadrants.
- SSTs are 29-30C and ocean heat content is favourable.
- CIMSS continues to show good poleward outflow and upper divergence. CIMSS shear
- has further decreased in the last 12 hours to be less than 10 knots.
- Over the next 12 to 24 hours, conditions will remain favourable with low
- vertical wind shear, high moisture and warm SSTs. As a mid level ridge develops
- later on today and begins influencing the steering, the presence of dry air and
- increasing shear should cause the system to weaken, however, gales may persist
- in southern quadrants due to the pressure gradient associated with a ridge of
- high pressure to the south.
- The system is being steered towards the south due to an upper trough passing to
- the south. during today, a building mid level ridge will steer the system
- towards the west-southwest. The majority of NWP guidance is consistent with the
- forecast track.
- Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie is not expected to produce gales at Christmas
- Island or the WA mainland.
- Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
- ==
- The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0130 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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