king111807

JTWC降格C2

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 17.4S 68.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 68.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.2S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.1S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.0S 65.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.5S 63.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 22.9S 58.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 27.5S 55.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 36.2S 61.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 68.6E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 653
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.
//
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king111807

MFR降格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 170748
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 67.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 29.9 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 185 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/22 06 UTC: 41.8 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 715 SE: 370 SW: 150 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 435 SE: 205 SW: 110 NW: 305

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI KEPT A CLOUD PATTERN MARKED BY VERY
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN RELATION TO
THE STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS WERE
ABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE LATEST MICROWAVE
PASS (WSFM 0118Z AND GMI 0629Z) SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION. THE 06Z INTENSITY WAS SET AT 55KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE 0102Z SAR RCM2 DATA AND THE PARTIAL 0415Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH
SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60KT.

THE SYSTEM'S MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD HEAD MORE DIRECTLY
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TOMORROW, DUDZAI'S TRACK
SHOULD RESUME A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, DUDZAI COULD PASS
BETWEEN 50 AND 150KM SOUTH-EAST OF RODRIGUES AND APPROXIMATELY 300KM
AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TURNING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN
MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IS DECREASING, THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING THE DISTANCE TO RODRIGUES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
WEAKENING IN THE UPCOMING HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THIS SHEAR SHOULD
THEN TEMPORARILY DECREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR A SHORT WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL-WARM WATERS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD BE REACHED AGAIN. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES :
POSSIBLE GALE WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY MORNING.
VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES RANGING 4 TO 6M UP TO MONDAY MORNING.=

king111807

JTWC降格TS

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 67.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 67.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.1S 66.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.2S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.9S 62.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.8S 60.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.0S 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 31.6S 58.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 43.6S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 67.1E.
17JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 994 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.
//
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