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19P.Hadi 風切阻撓發展受限NRL暫撤

簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

KINGRIC|2014-3-9 17:13 | 顯示全部樓層
高低分離相當嚴重
短時間內要發展起來可能有些困難
不過BOM仍預測下一報仍有機會升格
未來它的行進路徑不確定性相當高
似乎有要折返回低緯的打算...

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只是印象中也沒啥好發展..  發表於 2014-3-9 21:15
...
之前找了數值來看 也有顯示會這樣在這附近海面飄盪的  發表於 2014-3-9 20:11
嗯 了解了 ^^  發表於 2014-3-9 17:25
是12到24小時之間。目前BoM對TD採3小時(路徑+概述)/6小時(路徑+報文)發報制  發表於 2014-3-9 17:19
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簽到天數: 3733 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2014-3-9 18:02 | 顯示全部樓層
從今天的彩色雲圖上看今天的96p,過去一天它整個幾乎縮成一團像圓球一樣不過螺旋未減稍早時中心一度要裸露不過應該補起來了...東北澳近陸風切真可怕。


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簽到天數: 122 天

[LV.7]常住居民III

新細明體|2014-3-9 20:55 | 顯示全部樓層
事實上這貨根本一直有35KT水平,地面實測和ASCAT也支持。德法一向歧視此類系統
搬到西太的話一早就命名了。11TALAS剛升格時也是一副爛樣子

BOM一向比較注重中心附近的持續風速,而且烈風只集中於中心南側,所以暫時不打算升格
JMA則沒有那麼嚴格,一般ASCAT掃出多少,MXWD就給多少,不過會注明最大風速不在中心附近

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不過也沒辦法 畢竟命名是bom說了算  發表於 2014-3-9 21:14
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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-3-10 00:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-3-10 00:49 編輯

15Z升格命名Hadi !

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 1:37 am EST on Monday 10 March 2014


A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal areas from Ayr to St Lawrence.

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Hadi, Category 1 was estimated to be
300 kilometres northeast of Hamilton Island and 390 kilometres east northeast
of Ayr and moving east southeast at 15 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Hadi, CATEGORY 1, has developed over the past 3 hours and is
forecast to slowly strengthen further over the next 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone
is currently moving in an east to southeast direction and should develop a
northeasterly track during the day today. It is likely the cyclone will remain
well offshore of the coast.

GALES are expected to continue about central coast and island communities
between Ayr and St Lawrence during Monday.

Heavy rain is now less likely about the east coast, and the threat will ease
further during Monday as the cyclone continues to move away from the coast.

Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore between Ayr and St
Lawrence. Tides will also be higher than normal. People living in areas likely
to be affected should take measures to protect their property as much as
possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

People between Ayr and St Lawrence should take precautions and listen to the
next advice at 5:00 am.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hadi at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.3 degrees South 150.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

===================
推估是實測命名

As reported from FLINDERS REEF
(17.71S 148.45E 7m)
AUSTRALIA
Wind speed at 00 UTC 09 Mar 2014 was
34 knots or 18 m/s from 190 degrees or S.

As reported from HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT
(20.35S 148.95E 59m)
AUSTRALIA
Wind speed at 12 UTC 09 Mar 2014 was
39 knots or 20 m/s from 140 degrees or SE.

As reported from CREAL REEF
(20.53S 150.38E 5m)
AUSTRALIA
Wind speed at 12 UTC 09 Mar 2014 was
36 knots or 19 m/s from 150 degrees or SSE.

======
對流猛爆形態比17P還好~
只是不知道有沒有覆蓋在LLCC上= =

補個15Z IR


----
路徑晚了一點公布
澳式C1後期移向低緯減弱...



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評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +25 收起 理由
ben811018 + 25

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-3-10 10:18 | 顯示全部樓層
再度發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 150.5E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTLY EXPOSED
AS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LLCC. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES
INCLUDING A 092253Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE TO STRONG (25 TO 30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, SUPPORTED BY A 092254Z SCATTEROMETRY
PASS, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. NUMERIC MODELS ARE PREDICTING THE
CYCLONE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL BRING
THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOWER VWS. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH



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簽到天數: 5 天

[LV.2]偶爾看看I

KINGRIC|2014-3-10 11:45 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS 18Z預測進入南太平洋重新整合
後期再度接近東澳 不過沒有12Z來得誇張
12Z預測近如南太平洋整合後強度猛爆 撲向東澳...
18Z:



再回顧一下12Z
如果這個成真 這將是個葩貨


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-3-10 12:31 | 顯示全部樓層
既然已經命名了,就請版主把分類改為熱帶氣旋。

點評

已修改... 感謝提醒  發表於 2014-3-10 12:44
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[LV.2]偶爾看看I

KINGRIC|2014-3-10 12:42 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-3-10 12:45 編輯

稍早 早上的底層掃描
強對流再度捲入LLCC中心附近
不過之後預測往東北離去
再低緯度重新醞釀後西折再度接近東澳
不過雖然數值誇張預測時間還相當久 還有一段時間觀察...


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