t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 86.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 830 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF TURNING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
THE POSITION OF THIS INVEST WAS REPOSITIONED FURTHER EAST IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE LAST ABIO UPDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

KINGRIC

對流雖然仍不斷冒出來 不過強乾空氣包圍
環境來看的話目前是抑制的
未來重新發展的機會應該是不高

t02436

即將再度登陸莫三比克
猛爆增強快速減弱
JTWC也取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 39.9E
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.