簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-7-9 13:40
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-7-9 13:43 編輯
JTWC評級Low
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.3N 154.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 082328Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
目前對流散亂
GFS00Z直指台灣而來
強度看來不會很弱
時間仍早還要再觀察
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