1409 雷馬遜 1973年以來華南最強颱，登陸地災情慘重

麻友飯 · 2014-7-10 13:20

我用這網頁看GFS的http://wxweb.meteostar.com/model ... i=ASA&model=GFS
下午1時只有00Z的90小時圖

00Z這一報似乎副高比上幾報偏強

另外有沒有在下午3時前就能看到GFS一整報的圖的網站
可不可以推薦一下:loveliness:

krichard2011 · 2014-7-10 13:26

GFS 00Z預測
這隻準雷馬遜將以中颱上限到強颱以上的強度
登陸台灣東北角... 數值大致就在台灣附近擺盪
需要多多注意... GFS的雲量預測也滿大一隻

martin191919 · 2014-7-10 13:51

REMAINS MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 152.4E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 100342Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO 25 KNOT
WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

martin191919 · 2014-7-10 15:43

本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2014-7-10 15:54 編輯

TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100608Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY
A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS
DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT CONVECTION, IMPROVING ORGANZIATION AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Wayne · 2014-7-10 16:28

其實這系統能夠有本事升格到Medium (當然現在TCFA了)

基本上就是確示了此地適合發展，客觀條件上也確實如此

再加上92W比較偏中小環流系統，發展速度應該會比較快

最起碼會比之前的浣熊快一點

個人的看法，+168以前的路徑應當是不會有什麼大意外

這段時間主要還是觀察準雷馬遜能發展到什麼程度

還有系統大小會不會有變化，在之後的路徑到時候再看就好了