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wangsj1968|2014-7-16 18:53
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WTPN21 PGTW 161130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 138.0E TO 12.2N 132.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
137.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 160650Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION
WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171130Z.//
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