martin191919

Details:

	Time (WST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am December 28	tropical low	14.5S	120.8E	75
+6hr	2 pm December 28	1	14.9S	120.4E	95
+12hr	8 pm December 28	1	15.3S	120.0E	120
+18hr	2 am December 29	1	15.7S	119.5E	145
+24hr	8 am December 29	2	16.1S	119.1E	165
+36hr	8 pm December 29	2	17.3S	118.3E	200
+48hr	8 am December 30	3	18.3S	117.4E	235
+60hr	8 pm December 30	3	19.8S	116.5E	275
+72hr	8 am December 31	3	21.7S	116.2E	310

t02436

06Z老J升格05S (35kts)
等等BOM即將命名
坐等老J第一報強度~~

krichard2011

JTWC目前預測到C1
不過結構還是挺鬆散的...
環流似乎挺大 可能無法在短時間內快速整合
強度上暫時不是很看好 應該會是個虛胖的颱風
至於BOM應該要等到晚上才有機會升格了

t02436

TC Christine
BOM正式命名
上望澳式第3級
報文還沒出來~~

jwpk9899

老J只上看C1應該也是有原因的
過去這一帶似乎曾有2個擾動
這個Christine之前編號04U 而當時距離近的地方 BoM又編了個TD
可能是這兩個合併後整個環流爆的更大
整合不易 外表雖胖  但是底層卻是...
照這個底層 如果再整合不起來 開個眼應該也是破破的眼睛了吧...

martin191919

Details:

	Time (WST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm December 28	1	16.0S	120.9E	45
+6hr	2 am December 29	1	16.5S	120.6E	70
+12hr	8 am December 29	1	17.0S	120.3E	90
+18hr	2 pm December 29	2	17.7S	119.9E	115
+24hr	8 pm December 29	2	18.2S	119.5E	135
+36hr	8 am December 30	3	19.1S	118.9E	175
+48hr	8 pm December 30	3	20.5S	118.0E	210
+60hr	8 am December 31	3	22.3S	117.5E	245
+72hr	8 pm December 31	1	25.2S	119.6E	280

蜜露

我在百度問了專業風迷

在我們西太. 有命名才能算入國際編號.

但其他海域不同.

南半球只要是熱帶擾動 可能就有國際編號了. 包含三家機構
MFS法國管西南印  國際編號為R
BOM澳洲管澳海     國際編號為U
FMS斐濟管南太      國際編號為F

美國颶風那裡是常見的NHC和CPHC管轄 熱帶低氣壓才算國際編號. 分為C , E , L

西太颱風是熱帶風暴強度才有國際編號. JMA日本管的 編號為13XX 明年是1401開始.

而北印是熱帶低氣壓才有國際編號.和颶風一樣. 編號為孟灣BOB和阿海ARB.

不過JTWC雖然不是最大的. 但他管理NHC CPHC以外海域..
常見編號就是 西太W 南印S 南太P  孟灣B 阿海A

如果西太模式改成南半球那樣..熱帶擾動都算國際編號的話. 那每年肯定不止26個左右
40個以上.......

martin191919

BOM升格Cat.2
  
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 29/12/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Christine
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.5S
Longitude: 119.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 170 nm [315 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:     
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  29/0600: 16.9S 119.6E:     035 [070]:  055  [100]:  979
+12:  29/1200: 17.5S 119.1E:     050 [090]:  060  [110]:  975
+18:  29/1800: 18.0S 118.8E:     060 [115]:  065  [120]:  967
+24:  30/0000: 18.6S 118.2E:     075 [135]:  070  [130]:  964
+36:  30/1200: 19.8S 117.4E:     095 [175]:  080  [150]:  954
+48:  31/0000: 21.8S 117.1E:     115 [210]:  060  [110]:  974
+60:  31/1200: 24.7S 119.0E:     130 [245]:  040  [075]:  989
+72:  01/0000: 27.3S 123.6E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]:  995
+96:  02/0000: 30.7S 138.1E:     195 [365]:  025  [045]:  998
+120: 03/0000: 28.9S 145.9E:     285 [525]:  025  [045]:  996
REMARKS:
System has continued to intensified over recent hours with improved curvature in
deep convection near the centre. Also microwave [2330UTC SSMIS] shows a
symmetrical low level circulation and provided a good indication of centre
location.
  
Dvorak analysis on IR gave curved band of 0.7 to 0.8 in past six hours with
FT/CI=3.5.