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06S.Bejisa 漸入高緯逐漸減弱中*

簽到天數: 815 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2013-12-27 04:41 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 12:16 編輯

   強烈熱帶氣旋  
     編號:04R (06S)
     名稱:Bejisa

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期:
2013 12 27 04
 消散日期  :
2014 01 07 10
 
    登陸地點  :
暫無


  巔峰時期資料  
 
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)     :   110   kts (  
CAT 3   )
     
留尼旺氣象部(MFR):    90    kts  (    ITC     )   
    海平面最低氣壓    :   
953
  百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片

99S.Invest-15kts-1010mb-11.2S-51.4E


以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

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評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +30 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 贊一個!
krichard2011 + 15 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 2955 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-12-28 07:45 | 顯示全部樓層

評級LOW
EC也認為是隻胖颱...
沿馬達加斯加沿岸北上
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 51.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 729 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING,
AREA OF TURNING WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY 20
KNOTS WIND BARBS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
BETWEEN A STRONG VWS GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH WHICH IS
PROBABLY HAMPERING FURTHER CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.



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應該是...南下吧 ^^  發表於 2013-12-28 08:45
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2013-12-28 08:40 | 顯示全部樓層
樣子大致已經看得出來了
螺旋性明顯起來
GFS也挺看好的
並且預測從馬達加斯加外海擦過


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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-28 10:17 | 顯示全部樓層
對流開始爆發

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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2013-12-28 11:16 | 顯示全部樓層
這個底層頗威...
似乎正在建立CDO
這種樣子應該已經不只LOW了吧...
從底層來看 應該會是個小鋼砲

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JTWC10Z升評Medium~ 附上稍早風場 中心已經出現紅旗了 PS稍早一帖北上是以站在赤道往南極看XD  詳情 回復 發表於 2013-12-28 18:42
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-12-28 18:42 | 顯示全部樓層

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-28 19:58 | 顯示全部樓層
The transequatorial monsoon inflow is established from the African coastlines to 60E. Over the
indian Ocean and to the East of 60E, the Monsoon Trough undulates along a 09S/60E - 07S/70S -
06S/80E - 09S/90E axis. The associated convective activity, scattered and disorganised, is mainly
located north of the trough.
West of 60E, the convective activity has strengthened and gained in organisation during the last 24
hours around a newly formed Tropical Disturbance. Warnings and advisories will start for this
system at 12Z.


Tropical Disturbance to the North-East of Madagascar :
At 09Z, the system is centred near 9.3S/52.1E, or about 120 km to the East of Faquhar islands or
about 450 km to the North-East of Diego-Suarez. The max 10-min winds are estimated at 15/25 kt
and could locally reach 30 kt in the north-western quadrant (cf. ascat pass at 0611Z).
After a
westwards motion last night and this morning, a slow southwards drift has seemed to occur since a
few hours. MSLP is estimated at 1008 hPa (high environmental pressure with almost 1013 hPa,
corrected from the barometric tide, reported et Agalega and Mahé at 09Z).
Within a rather
favourable environment, this small size system should continue its intensification during the next
few days.
The disturbed weather associated with this system is impacting the whole Seychelles archipelago.
The Faquhar islands are located over the main deep convection since this morning and the main
islands, located at about 600 km to the North-East of the system, are within a confluence area
between the monsoon flow and the cyclonic circulation. Mahé reported at 06Z 164 mm of rain
during the last 24 hours. This pattern, associated with high heavy rainfall potential, should continue
for the next 24 to 36 hours over the whole Seychelles archipelago.
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-12-28 22:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-12-28 22:32 編輯

MFR編號為熱帶擾動第4號(04R)
預估未來將有機會增強至TC而預計遠離大島馬達加斯加
但是...撲向MFR兩個大營
留尼旺 模里西斯...



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我居然沒發現那裡...  發表於 2013-12-28 22:29
...
可是指向留尼旺@@也不能算無引響..  發表於 2013-12-28 22:27
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