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martin191919|2013-12-29 10:19
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ZCZC 774
WTIO30 FMEE 290036 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4
2.A POSITION 2013/12/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 52.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/12/29 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/12/30 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/12/30 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/12/31 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/12/31 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/01/01 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/02 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2014/01/03 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTE
R INTO A CDO PATTERN DURING THE LAST HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE HIGH (1013 HPA). SO THE MS
LP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL.
THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD EQUATORWARDS BUT RATHER LIMITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK TRADEWINDS D
UE TO THE FAR INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING REMNANT OF AMARA. IN THE UPPER LEVEL, THE SYSTEM IS LOC
ATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UNDER A MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT WEAKENIN
G.
FIRSTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MONSOON FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH-EAST, AND A FIELD QUITE WEAK IN THE SOUTH.
MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD
STEER THE SYSTEM ON A FASTER SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTERLY-TRACK.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WEAKENS AND ALLOW A MORE SOUTHEAST
WARDS TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, BUT IT REMAINS SO
ME STRONG FLUCTUATIONS ON THE TIMING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MEAN OF ALL LATEST AVAI
LABLE GUIDANCES AND THE MEAN OF THE LATEST 2 RUNS OF ECMWF.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOMORROW AND SHOULD BENE
FIT FROM GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (2 OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH) A
ND LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVE
L RIDGE.
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