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1422 哈格比 中心裸露 將掠馬來半島

簽到天數: 2840 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-12-1 03:28 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 155.0E TO 6.6N 148.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301649Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A DEFINED
CENTER THAT IS SPINNING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT
(300600Z) SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NUKUORO ATOLL, CAROLINE IS.
REFLECT A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
OF 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AGENCIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED DUE TO
THE MORE INTENSE CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER AND MID-LEVELS THAN IS
BEING REPRESENTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS SUCH, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.//
NNNN



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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-12-1 03:29 | 顯示全部樓層
雖然剛才還分析到 T2.0,JTWC 只發佈了 TCFA,因為認定底層風速還沒跟上中高層發展。



WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 155.0E TO 6.6N 148.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301649Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A DEFINED
CENTER THAT IS SPINNING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT
(300600Z) SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NUKUORO ATOLL, CAROLINE IS.
REFLECT A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
OF 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AGENCIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED DUE TO
THE MORE INTENSE CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER AND MID-LEVELS THAN IS
BEING REPRESENTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS SUCH, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.//
NNNN

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-12-1 08:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 升格 22W
一大早 型態就非常的不錯
發展前景相當看好


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簽到天數: 2840 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2014-12-1 09:01 | 顯示全部樓層
首報路徑圖出爐
暫時上望100Kts


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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-12-1 09:14 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-12-1 09:20 編輯

JMA稍早發布GW
預測24小時內升格TS

WTPQ20 RJTD 010000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010000UTC 03.7N 153.5E FAIR

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 020000UTC 05.7N 149.0E 120NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =


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簽到天數: 1964 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2014-12-1 10:26 | 顯示全部樓層

JTWC 首報路徑
稍晚RSMC如有新路徑在PO上來~


再補一張ec系集


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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-12-1 11:16 | 顯示全部樓層
這底層實在是有點優 疑似雲捲眼或風眼
照這樣的型態繼續發展下去
下午升格的機會相當高

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點評

風場掃描掃到35KTS 應該要升格了  發表於 2014-12-1 11:52
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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2014-12-1 12:37 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 預測路徑呈現下墜球
不過在接近菲律賓的途中 變數仍不小
不過初期大致是往菲律賓接近
周圍環境相當優越 未來強度發展方面頗具可看性的



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