簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-12-1 03:28
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JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 301930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.5N 155.0E TO 6.6N 148.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 154.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N
155.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 154.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301649Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO A DEFINED
CENTER THAT IS SPINNING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE MOST RECENT
(300600Z) SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM NUKUORO ATOLL, CAROLINE IS.
REFLECT A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND SLP
OF 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AGENCIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY EXAGGERATED DUE TO
THE MORE INTENSE CIRCULATION IN THE UPPER AND MID-LEVELS THAN IS
BEING REPRESENTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS SUCH, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.//
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