01L.Arthur 六年以來登陸美國本土最強颶風

martin191919 · 2014-7-1 09:49

TCFA

martin191919 · 2014-7-1 11:11

升格01L，上望60kts

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010253
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL012014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  79.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  79.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.6N  79.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE 0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE 0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.8N  79.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE 0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N  79.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE 0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N  78.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE 0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

krichard2011 · 2014-7-1 20:10

結構開始整合起來了
有明顯的對流開始暴發
現在相較先前鬆散的樣子看起來已經很不錯了
NHC這次甚至預測來到 Cat.1 65 kt

INIT  01/0900Z 27.6N  79.3W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/1800Z 27.9N  79.4W 35 KT  40 MPH
24H  02/0600Z 28.5N  79.6W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  02/1800Z 29.5N  79.5W 45 KT  50 MPH
48H  03/0600Z 30.8N  79.1W 50 KT  60 MPH
72H  04/0600Z 34.3N  76.4W 65 KT  75 MPH
96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  69.5W 65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 44.0N  62.0W 50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

t02436 · 2014-7-1 23:06

15Z命名Arthur
上望70KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 27.6N  79.3W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  02/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W 35 KT  40 MPH
24H  02/1200Z 28.7N  79.6W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  03/0000Z 29.8N  79.5W 50 KT  60 MPH
48H  03/1200Z 31.2N  78.9W 60 KT  70 MPH
72H  04/1200Z 35.4N  75.2W 70 KT  80 MPH
96H  05/1200Z 40.8N  67.3W 65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 45.5N  59.5W 45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP